Maui Weather Blog with David Dorn

Today’s Weather: Monday, September 11, 2017

The Summary:   NWS Says: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. West southwest wind around 7 mph becoming north northwest. Chance of precipitation is 20%.  Computer Models Say; 8 to 9 mph today. Surf expected to be 3 ft NNW.  We Say;  The actual wind at Kanaha will likely be stronger than the forecast, we estimate that it will be averaging in the mid teens with gusts into the high teens. Our “Venturi Factor” Today for Kanaha is 6 out of 10. **Our Gustiness Factor today should be about 40% which is “bumpy” level.  The wind should side-onshore and gusty today.  

Oceans are not like Lakes or Rivers: If you are new to ocean sailing then you should get an ocean sailing 101 lesson from one of our local experienced instructors. There are many common pitfalls and basic survival techniques that you will want to learn before getting yourself into trouble. Talk to Suzie about our “Ocean Rider 101 class”.

Shorebreak Warning: Watch out for shore break. Especially when the tide is high and the swell is up. There tends to be more shore break. Shore break is waves breaking into the shoreline, and they can be especially dangerous even when they are small. Take care when crossing through the shore break, and do not linger there. Get in and get out quickly, do not lose your footing, and definitely, do not drop your kite in the shore break. *Read More about Shore-breaks at the Bottom of this Page!!

Strong Wind Warning: Maui has a lot more strong wind days than most other locations. Many people have not kited in strong winds before. Riding in strong winds requires an adapted technique and specialty equipment. If you came to Maui with only large kite sizes then there is a good chance that your kite will be too big some of the time. Do not go out overpowered, you are taking a risk with your own safety but you put other people at risk as well. So always ask one of our local instructors about you kite size choice if you are in any doubt. Your kite should never be significantly larger than the other kites on the water. Note that most of the local riders will make better-informed choices on right kite size for the local conditions. If necessary you will need to rent a smaller kite And/or get a lesson on riding a smaller kite in strong winds. If you have never ridden a small kite size before, then get a lesson from one of our Instructors. Ask Suzie about our High-Wind 101 Lesson.

Kite Beach Maui with a view towards the Iao Valley and Kahului Harbor. Photo Suzie Dorn.
Kite Beach Maui with a view towards the Iao Valley and Kahului Harbor. Photo Suzie Dorn.

Wind Forecast – Model Tables:

Weather Map: Here is the weather map. The 1024 mb High-pressure system to our northeast, is producing an easterly trade-wind airflow. There is a Low just to our southeast that is affecting our trade wind flow. ** These predictions are for the generalized (Tradewind) airflow across the state, and local wind effects (rain/venturi/clouds/etc.) need to be considered.http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/graphics/npac.gif

NWS Current: Here are the Current Conditions and Forecast.

Humidity 82%
Water Temperature                81.3 °F                          
Barometer 29.92 in (1013.8 mb)
Dewpoint 66°F (19°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 11 Sep 3:54 am HST

Maui County Windward Waters:

Maui County Windward Waters-
326 AM HST Mon Sep 11 2017

.TODAY…East winds 15 knots. Wind waves 4 feet. Mixed swell
northwest 3 feet and southeast 3 feet. Scattered showers in the
morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT…Southeast winds 10 knots. Wind waves 3 feet. Scattered
showers.

Maalaea Bay:

Maalaea Bay-
326 AM HST Mon Sep 11 2017

.TODAY…Northwest winds 10 knots in the morning becoming
variable less than 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less. Isolated
showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT…Northwest winds 10 knots veering north after midnight.
Wind waves 2 feet or less. Scattered showers in the evening.
.TUESDAY…West winds 10 knots. Wind waves 2 feet or less.
Scattered showers in the afternoon.

Tides at Kahului: 

Sunrise 6:12 AM HST  
High Tide 6:23 AM HST 2.00 ft
Moonset 11:25 AM HST  
Low Tide 12:10 PM HST 1.21 ft
High Tide 4:59 PM HST 1.65 ft
Sunset 6:32 PM HST  
Moonrise 11:02 PM HST

Tides in Kihei:

Low Tide 12:36 AM HST 0.12 ft
Sunrise 6:12 AM HST  
High Tide 8:15 AM HST 1.83 ft
Moonset 11:24 AM HST  
Low Tide 1:29 PM HST 0.63 ft
Sunset 6:31 PM HST  
High Tide 6:51 PM HST 1.51 ft
Moonrise 11:02 PM HST  

Rain Radar: Here is the current Radar Photo:

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

 Clouds over the State:

 

Infrared Satellite Image:

 

Wind Yesterday:  Here is yesterday’s wind graph. Winds were generally averaging around the high teens to low 20’s, side onshore. The wind was gusty. Winds were gusting around the mid 20’s. The highest gusts were up to 28 mph. Interestingly, the wind went NW at about 6pm yesterday.

Moon Phase:  Waning Gibbous, Illumination: 70%. The Moon today is in a Waning Gibbous Phase. This is the first phase after the Full Moon occurs. It lasts roughly 7 days with the Moon’s illumination growing smaller each day until the Moon becomes a Last-Quarter Moon with an illumination of 50%.  More..
Hurricane Season:  Hurricanes are most likely to occur July through December in Hawaii. Hurricanes bring severe bad weather, flooding rain and potentially devastatingly strong winds. The passing of a Hurricane may last days or up to a week or more. The Hurricanes usually develop far away in the eastern Pacific and we generally get several days or more warning of their approach. So there is usually time to make preparations and even evacuate if necessary. Many Hurricanes come close to Hawaii but are just too far away to have a severe effect, This near-miss scenario, and repeated canceled warnings, can give some people a false sense of security. Until one does hit, and then they may be unprepared. Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Climate Change Maui: There is a lot of confusion about climate change. There are anthropogenic (man-made) factors that affect climate, like greenhouse gasses, deforestation, and pollution. This is a worldwide problem but has to be managed locally as well. Reducing our carbon footprint using renewable resources like solar and wind energy, as well as recycling and reusing materials rather than throwing materials away after a single use. Also being mindful of not causing harm to the ecosystem by over using toxic agricultural chemicals. Also eating less meat (reduces greenhouse gasses and deforestation) and would be a major step in slowing Global Warming

How climate change affects Maui, we are an island so sea level rise is a problem, There is forecast sea level rise globally with an average of 1.8mm per year. Kahului Maui has a forecast annual sea level rise of 2.1mm per year. which is very small annually by adds up over the longer timescale. Here is an inundation map (below) of Kahului after the 1-meter sea level rise. At current rates, this is estimated to be in approximately 500 years. As you can see Kite beach is still there. The negative effects of climate change should not be underestimated. Severe weather and crop failures will have a dramatic effect on the way we live, Storm damage to property and the relocation and reinforcing of infrastructure will be very disruptive and extremely expensive.

BEACH LOSS: Beach Loss is not solely attributed to sea level rise, it is more directly influenced by man-made problems like destruction of wetlands, destruction of sand stocks, covering shoreline dunes with development, 70 years of sand mining (removal of sand and coral from beaches and nearshore waters), and shoreline hardening. These are things that we can more easily remedy (/ remediate), at least in the short-term. Beach restoration, sand supplementation, Dune stabilization with native plants, sand fencing, limiting overuse of the nearshore zone, and of course shoreline setback regulations for new structures being constructed. Shoreline areas need to be preserved for their vital role in protecting our island from shoreline retreat. Beach loss/sand-loss itself is just the symptom of the underlying problems.

Coral Reef Destruction and Degradation: Coral Reef Protects the shoreline from wave action and allows the build up of sandy beaches. Coral Reefs also provide the raw materials for Coral Sands that most Maui beaches are primarily made of. Healthy Coral needs to be protected and appreciated and valued for its role in coastal protection and beach preservation.

Image from Maui Beach Management Plan. Official estimates for sea level rise (annual 2.1mm) put this “1-meter inundation model scenario” at about 500 years in the future.

More Information on Climate Change and Coastal management issues…

 

TODAY’S KITE SAFETY PRO-TIP:  “BEWARE OF WAVES”

To avoid accidents, you should Always Beware of Waves. Even a small wave can be very powerful and can turn you upside down, This can lead to serious injury and drowning. Get a lesson before entering the waves, Waves are far different from flat water. Never drop your kite in the breaking waves, and if you do be prepared to let it go. Waves will easily destroy a kite and could hurt you, so invest in a “ride-in-the-waves 101” lesson from an experienced, qualified,  IKO Certified Kiteboarding Instructor.

Shorebreak Warning: Watch out for shore break. Especially when the tide is high and the swell is up. There tends to be more shore break. Shore break is waves breaking into the shoreline, and they can be especially dangerous even when they are small. Take care when crossing through the shore break, and do not linger there. Get in and get out quickly, do not lose your footing, and definitely do not drop your kite in the shore break. Also, watch out for logs and debris in the shore-break, even rocks can get thrown around and hit you. Your board too can become a projectile if it gets caught in the shore-break. If you do drop a kite or board in the shore-break, be very careful trying to retrieve it. Don’t get caught in-between the object and the shoreline when there is a wave behind it, or it will run you over. people can get pinned under their kites or sails when the wave piles water on top of it. Note: Don’t be holding onto any kite lines as a wave hits the kite because the sudden force will cause it to wrench out of your hands too. Moving water contains a lot of energy, so make sure that you do not get in-between the moving water (wave) and the shoreline. the other danger with shore-break is getting flipped over and dumped on your head. This is super common because you will have no traction on the sea floor once you become buoyed up in the water. Key Point Recap: Shore-break is dangerous, Shore-break happens at high tide during a big swell. Do not linger in the shore-break zone. Don’t drop kite or board in shore-break. Logs, rocks, and boards can become projectiles in shore-break. Objects like kites and sails are almost impossible to hold onto in the shore break and become dangerous. Never hold onto kite lines in the shore-break. There is a high risk of getting flipped over onto your head and injured.

For More Kite Safety Tips Go To Kitesafe.com

 

Maui Surf ReportMaui Surf Report: For more detailed Surf Information go to our Maui Surf Report Page.  

 

Today’s Tides Kahului: For more information about Maui Tides go to our TIDES PAGE.

 

Live Wind Report: Tune into our Daily Weather VLOG on our FaceBook Friend Page at 10:30 am each day. Thanks to our fans and people who regularly watch out VLOG, sometimes we are a little late, and the time of 10:30 may not be exact, so thanks for being patient. Also if you like the VLOG Report, then please let us know and give us a Like on Facebook (Likes are like Hugs!).  We have Moved our Wind Report VLOG to our other Facebook Page, please change your “bookmarks” accordingly.

Find Us on Kite Beach: We are at Kitebeach almost every day (10 am – 5 pm), so come look for our Van, and Drop By and Say hello. *Ask us for a copy of the New MKC Guidelines for Kiting on Maui Brochure that includes a map of Maui kite spots. Call in for Lessons Schedule and Information, we are on for lessons, today, and we are getting busy, please call us if you want to schedule a lesson. +1 (808) 283-7913

Loss of Beach Access: A most pressing made-made issue is Loss of Beach Access, where less public ocean access is available. This is due to developers, and public planners failing to protect ocean access points. This is the biggest immediate threat the ocean users face here on Maui.  

 

UPDATE: (We have reached the 1000 signature mark). The Kanaha Parking Petition is Helping Inform Decision Makers and it is already having a positive effect. However, this battle is still not over. We need to keep sharing our stories and giving reasons of WHY Beach Access parking is Important to us. In your comments Please include Some clear reasons of “Which exact parking access (s) you use (each one is evaluated separately), and Why you Need this Parking to remain as is”, and How it would be burdensome if they move existing parking 100 or more meters away from the shoreline. Give reasons and describe things like your activity, the kind of gear you have to take with you etc. What difference would it make to your enjoyment of the sport, your ability to access ocean, and/or would it affect and change your desire to use the area, or perhaps drive you to use another area, causing changes in usage patterns, user density, or create user safety issues?  The more details given in the comments help to paint a clearer picture for the decision makers about How we use these places, and Why they are important to us. They simply do not know the whys. And Please Keep asking your friends to Sign this Petition and ideally make a Comment too. This Petition is still one of the best tools we have to protect our beach. 

For More Information go to Mauikiteboarding association Save Kanaha Page

or Go directly to the Change.org Save Kanaha Petition

Please Share and Like this Blog:  You can help us grow by sharing, liking, and tweeting about us.  You can also use the social buttons at the bottom of this page. Likes are like Votes, because we are going to channel our time and energies into our most popular features. So Liking our stuff is a great way for you to let us know what features you would like to see continue. 

 
For the Older Weather Blogs Click Here